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Calculators · Investing

Time in the market vs. timing the market

It's never going to go how you think it's going to go. See what staying in did, compared with missing the best years.

The idea

Nobody knows ahead of time which years will be the good ones. Waiting on the side for a better moment can mean missing the years that do most of the work. Some of the best years came right after the worst ones: 1974 then 1975, 2002 then 2003, 2008 then 2009.

$
Any year from 1928. Runs to the end of 2025.
Years missed
In a missed year, the money sits in Treasury bills (cash) instead.

Every year since 1990

S&P 500 return each calendar year, dividends included. Lime bars are the best years.

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Past results, not a forecast. This uses whole calendar years; a version with daily prices is planned. "Missing the worst years" needs perfect hindsight, which nobody has. Fees and taxes are left out. Education, not financial advice.

Source: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern, "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Gold, 1928 to 2025" (updated Jan. 5, 2026): S&P 500 total return (with dividends) and 3-month Treasury bill.